Can Compiled Player WAR Predict MLB Team Win Percentage?

Authors

Thomas Hertel, Louisiana Tech UniversityFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Spring 2024

Abstract

The baseball statistic Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a complex yet effective metric for approximating the contribution of a player to his team through representing how many more wins his team ought to earn than with a AAAA player in his stead. The intent of this paper is to test whether the accumulation of player’s WAR can be extended to satisfy another discipline of SABRmetrics, i.e. predicting an entire team’s future performance, through modeling the sum’s correspondence (or lack thereof) to wins. If WAR is shown to extend in this way then franchise front offices could feasibly isolate it as a singular metric for team construction, rendering negligible the intangible elements of team chemistry which could theoretically surface when bunching individuals’ stats. Using numbers from the last 10 seasons of Major League Baseball, statistical methods are employed to aid in the above determination as well as to answer some ancillary questions, including, for instance, concluding the quality of bWAR vs. fWAR and WAR vs. WAA and offering an answer for the ’Y-Intercept Conjecture’.

Recommended Citation

Hertel, Thomas, "Can Compiled Player WAR Predict MLB Team Win Percentage?" (2024). Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers. 40.
https://digitalcommons.latech.edu/mathematics-senior-capstone-papers/40