Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Spring 2023

Abstract

The three-point shot, introduced in the late 1970s, is a shot that occurs typically 24 feet away from the basket at the professional level. Strategically the game of basketball was originally based on two-point field goals. Recently, there has been a noticeable trend in the popularity of the three-point shot amongst professional teams. Nowadays, three point shot attempts account for more than a third of average NBA shot selection. Statistical analysis is becoming integral to athletics. Statistics has become a critical component to the development of not only on court basketball strategies, but also team structure as well. There are multiple studies that use linear and logistic regression models to form a prediction algorithm for the outcome of games. Many have statistically characterized the increase in three-point shooting on a year-toyear basis. Especially after the 2012 – 2013 season, three shooting began to become the more favorable shot for teams. The purpose of this research is to analyze this statistical jump and determine if three-point shooting is statistically significant to winning probability before and after the jump. By progressing from linear to logistic regression, the three-shot point shot was found to be statistically insignificant to winning probability. However, the model was accurate predicting the winning probability for seasons before and after the statistical jump year.

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